Company Report

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 69,400/share (from VND 71,300/share), implying a 8% upside. The adjustment reflects an 11% downward revision to our 2025 NPATMI forecast, following weaker-than-expected 1H25 results.

1H25 performance: Strong hydropower, weak real estate and M&E

Earnings slightly missed our projections, as:

•           House sales at Light Square project showed little progress

•           Multiple M&E contracts delayed revenue recognition, as they remain under construction

•           Office leasing segment incurred higher-than-expected maintenance costs.

Hydropower recovery was the main driver of 48% YoY NPATMI growth, supported by favorable weather condition YoY, as 1H24 earnings was depressed by El Niño weather pattern.

2025 outlook: Softer 2H earnings ahead

•           We forecast NPATMI of VND 2.4 tn (+18% YoY).

•           This implies flat to slightly negative YoY growth in 2H25, as hydropower plants typically conserve water in the fourth quarter to ensure sufficient water availability for power generation in the following year.

2026 outlook:

•           We project revenue of VND 11.0 tn (+15% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+23% YoY),

•           Key drivers:

• Stronger M&E services revenue contribution
• Further revenue recognition from Light Square project
• Rising occupancy at E.town 6 office building
• Ongoing favorable hydrological conditions

Earnings update: BMP delivered solid 2Q25 results with revenue of VND1,308bn (+13.4% YoY) and NPAT of VND330bn (+17.7% YoY). Margins held firm, with GPM at 46.7% and OPM at 31.5%, reflecting stable input costs and pricing discipline. Revenue softened slightly from 1Q25, but profitability improved. Cumulatively, 1H25 revenue reached VND2,691bn (+24.8% YoY) with NPAT of VND617bn (+31.2% YoY).

Operations update: Management remains focused on efficiency rather than expansion, with product-mix adjustments and selective investments aimed at sustaining cash flow. The new CEO is gradually pushing for product innovation and distribution upgrades, though these will likely take time to filter into earnings.

Industry and market outlook: PVC resin prices have inched up since May 2025 but are expected to remain stable through 3Q25, while volatility from crude oil and tariffs bears watching. Chinese demand has shown modest improvement but is unlikely to lift global prices materially. In Vietnam, real estate activity is beginning to stabilize, with early signs of project restarts and supportive housing policy, which should benefit medium-term construction demand.

Investment thesis and forecast: We forecast 2025E net revenue at VND5,490bn (+19.0% YoY) and NPAT at VND1,181bn (+19.2% YoY), implying a net margin of 21.5%. For2026E, we expect net revenue of VND5,650bn (+2.9% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,144bn (-3.2% YoY), with net margins normalizing slightly at 20.2%. The company remains positioned to defend profitability while sustaining healthy dividends.

We reiterate OUTPERFORM on Gemadept with a revised target price of VND 75,000/share (from VND 58,800/share). The upgrade reflects stronger 2025F–2026F earnings forecasts and reduced tariff risks, supporting a re-rating case. Near-term catalysts include: (i) potential tariff hikes at deep-sea ports, (ii) favorable U.S. treatment of transshipment cargo, (iii) rubber plantation divestment progress, and (iv) project milestones such as Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3’s earlier launch and legal clearance for Gemalink Phase 2A.

2Q25 Results: Gemadept delivered strong results, with revenue up 30% YoY/17% QoQ and pretax profit rising ~YoY/16% QoQ to VND 677bn, broadly in line with our expectations. Growth was supported by exporters frontloading shipments to the U.S. ahead of Liberation Day tariff implementation.

Key Discussion Highlights

•           Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 (NDV3): Construction has been accelerated, with operations now targeted for Oct 2025 (vs. Jan 2026 initially).

•           Rubber Plantation Divestment: Negotiations with potential buyers are ongoing, with the deal expected to be finalized soon.

•           Deep-Sea Port Tariff Hike: A tariff increase of around 10% could be implemented as early as 3Q25, with Gemalink among the key beneficiaries.

•           5-Year Strategic Plan: Management is preparing a roadmap for 2026–2030, targeting earnings CAGR at least in line with the 2021–2025 period. The plan will be presented for shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM.

VNM delivered a mixed set of 2Q25 results. Revenue recovered 29% QoQ (flat YoY), thanks to a rebound in domestic sales after restructuring, while international business stayed subdued against a high base. Management highlighted that distribution channels are now fully restored and operating more efficiently than before.

Gross margin improved QoQ to 42% but remained slightly below last year, reflecting the impact of elevated material prices (despite the 2.5% ASP hike). Net profit fell 7.7% YoY, missing our forecast by 6%, with net margin slipping to 15%. At the half-year mark, only 46% of revenue and 42% of profit targets have been achieved, underscoring the need for strong 2H execution to meet guidance.

We are near-term cautious due to the weak 1H25 performance, margin compression, and a still-fragile GT channel (tax reforms impacting small household businesses). From 2026, we expect stronger growth driven by new category ramp-up and a recovery in consumer confidence, underpinned by higher GDP growth. We maintain our 2025 earnings forecast of VND 9.3tn (-2% YoY) but revise our 2026 earnings forecast upward to VND 9.5tn (+2.4% YoY). We downgrade our rating to MARKET PERFORM (from Outperform), given only 7% potential upside to our TP of VND 65,000/share.

We revise our recommendation on HDG from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, reflecting recent share price appreciation. However, we raise our 12-month target price to VND 33,000/share (from VND 29,800), implying 4% upside. The higher target price is underpinned by a 20–30% increase in our NPAT forecasts for 2025–2027, following updated assumptions for the Hado Charm Villas project and inclusion of estimates related to La Trong hydropower project.

Strategic updates

•           HDG launched the third sales phase of Hado Charm Villas, reinforcing the visibility on earnings growth potential for 2025–2027.

•           The company expanded its hydropower portfolio with the acquisition of the La Trong project, enhancing the long-term growth and stable outlook of the electricity segment.

Outlook

•           2025: We forecast NPAT of VND 1.1 tn (+152% YoY), supported by hydropower recovery and initial revenue recognition from Hado Charm Villas Phase 3.

•           2026: We project revenue of VND 3.7 tn (+20% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1.7 tn (+51% YoY), driven by subsequent Hado Charm Villas sales launches and continued favorable hydrology conditions.

In 3Q FY 2025, HSG reported consolidated revenue of VND 9.5 trillion, strongly improving by 12.5% QoQ, even though YoY comparison shows a decline of 12.3%, due to lower export volume from antidumping duties in key export markets. NPATMI in 2Q FY 2025 reached VND 274 bn, flat YoY and +173% QoQ, thanks to solid ASP trend and lower input price.

Margin improvement is also a notable point for HSG this quarter, with gross margin reached 12.8%, meaning a 0.5 percentage point improvement compared to 3Q FY 2024 and 2 percentage point higher than 2024 gross margin. Key drivers: higher ASP, lower input cost.

We revise up our 2025-2026 estimates. Specifically, we expect 2025F NPAT to improve to VND 750 bn (from VND 701 bn), +47% YoY. 2026F NPAT is also revised to VND 834 bn +11% YoY (from VND 782 bn). This means that 4Q FY 2025 NPAT is estimated at VND 103 bn, turning around from a loss of VND 181 bn in 4Q FY2024).

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM. We revise 2026 target of HSG to VND 21,600/share based on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. Recommend to buy on dip for trading opportunities.

Short-term catalyst: Official announcement of AD19.

Sabeco’s 1H25 results showed a 17% YoY decline in net sales, though management explained like-for-like sales fell only 5%. External challenges included weak consumption, tax-driven disruption in traditional trade, and administrative restructuring across provinces. Despite top-line pressure, 2Q25 margins improved meaningfully - gross margin and operating margin rose by 380bps and 570bps, respectively, driven by production efficiency and SG&A discipline. Inventory levels were lower, reflecting a cautious procurement stance amid input cost risks. While rising aluminum costs and FX volatility remain key concerns, lower malted barley prices, 3-5% ASP increases, and SG&A cost control provide optimism for 2H25.

We revise down our 2025E revenue by 7% to reflect the consolidation effect of Sabibeco but maintain our earnings forecast. Our 2025E forecasts assume drops of 18% and 5% YoY in revenue and net profit, respectively. For 2026E, we forecast 3% YoY growth in both metrics. We revise our DCF/PER-based 12-month TP to VND55,000/share (from VND58,000), which offers 15% potential upside. As such, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for the shares.

VHC delivered strong 2Q25 results, with net profit surging 54% YoY (+147% QoQ) to VND 523bn, despite stable revenue of VND 3.19tn. Gross margin expanded to 19.5% (from 15.0% in 2Q24), driven by lower feed ingredient costs (corn, soybean meal...), normalized raw fish and fingerling prices (fingerlings -35% YTD), and a reversal of COGS provisions. Net profit margin improved to 16.4% (from 10.6% in 2Q24) thanks to reduced freight rates and favorable FX movements. Pangasius exports increased by 4% YoY and 32% QoQ, led by stronger shipments to the US (+10% YoY) and EU (+8% YoY), which more than offset weaker demand from China. Overall, The US market remains resilient despite 10% tariff hikes during Q2, with pangasius maintaining cost competitiveness versus other white fish. Low domestic catfish inventories can further support US import demand.

We raise FY25-26 forecasts to reflect stronger margins and a more supportive demand outlook. FY25, net sales projected at VND 13.5tn (+7.7% YoY), net profit at VND 1.45tn (+11.0% YoY), driven by gross margin expansion and favorable FX conditions. FY26, net sales forecast at VND 14.9tn (+10.3% YoY), net profit at VND 1.58tn (+9.3% YoY).

At VND 62,300/share, VHC trades near its two-year average P/E of 9.6x. Our blended DCF and P/E valuation implies a 12-month target price of VND 70,000/share (11x forward P/E), representing 12% upside. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating, underpinned by margin tailwinds, and strong positioning in US  market.

We downgrade Vinhomes (VHM) from Outperform to Market Perform following the recent share price rally, while maintaining a target price of VND 98,300 per share. Our long-term outlook remains constructive given Vinhomes’ position as Vietnam’s leading real estate developer, supported by a vast land bank and a proven track record in large-scale project execution.

Presales Momentum: FY25 presales are projected to surge 32% YoY to VND 137.6 tn, fueled by strong ongoing sales and upcoming launches, including Royal Island, Wonder City, Green City, Golden City, Green Paradise, and Lang Van. In FY26, presales are forecast to rise a further 6% YoY to VND 146.0 tn, with new project launches such as Apollo City and Phuoc Vinh Tay.

Earnings Outlook:

•           FY25: Revenue of VND 109.1 tn (+6.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 35.9 tn (+12.8% YoY).

•           FY26: Revenue of VND 127.9 tn (+17.3% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 38.8 tn (+8.3% YoY), underpinned by continued sales momentum from mega projects.

Short-Term Drivers: POSITIVE

1. Accelerated presales growth from new mega project launches and active bulk sales in 2H25.

2. Earnings uplift in 2H25 supported by a substantial unbilled backlog and recognition of presales from bulk transactions.

Upcoming Listing & Valuation

F88 is set to list 8.26 million shares on UPCoM on August 8, 2025, with a reference price of VND 634,900 per share. This pricing implies a market capitalization of approximately VND 5.2 trillion (USD 200 million), corresponding to a 2Q25 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3x. The company’s profitability remains compelling, with a return on assets (ROA) of 9.6% and return on equity (ROE) of 27.5%.

Business Model & Growth Trajectory

Founded in 2013, F88 operates a scalable, collateral-backed lending model focused on financially underserved customer segments. The company leverages both physical distribution—via a nationwide network of 888 stores—and digital engagement through its proprietary platforms. F88 has delivered exceptional growth, with both loan book and revenue registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 77–79% between 2019 and 2025. Its core offerings include:

* Direct secured lending, primarily against motorbikes and automobiles; and

* Loan origination and servicing for CIMB Bank, underpinned by a buyback clause on non-performing loans.

Financial Performance & Outlook

In the first half of 2025, F88’s pre-tax profit surged 213% year-on-year to VND 321 billion, reaching 48% of its full-year target. For the full year, the company projects:

* 43% growth in loan portfolio

* 50% growth in pre-tax profit

Growth will be driven by network expansion, increased adoption of the MyF88 mobile application, and broader cross-selling of insurance and financial products across its customer base.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on GAS, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 71,900/share, implying a modest 4% upside. We roll forward our valuation horizon to 2026, and we revise our 2025 NPAT estimate up by nearly 10%, driven by a stronger-than-expected provision reversal in 2Q25.

1H25 performance: GAS delivered solid earnings beat in 1H25, primarily due to a VND 1.6 tn provision reversal in 2Q25, resulting in 27% YoY NPAT growth, despite revenue growth remaining in single digits. The tight global gas market supported domestic gas and LNG prices, benefiting the dry gas segment, amid falling crude oil/fuel oil (FO) prices.

2025 outlook: Following the substantial provision reversal, we forecast 5% YoY revenue growth, but 13% YoY NPAT increase for 2025.

2026 outlook: We anticipate that GAS will not repeat the same level of non-cash income seen in 2025. As a result, we project revenue to grow 10% to VND 119.2 tn (+10% YoY), while NPAT may decline 8% YoY to VND 11 tn. The top-line growth will be driven by increased LNG imports, particularly with the expected commissioning of Nhon Trach 3&4 project by end-2025. However, a potential cooling in LNG prices may temper margin expansion.

Following the recent share price correction, we upgrade our rating on FPT to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform). With our valuation horizon rolled forward to 2026, we raise our 12-month SOTP-based target price to VND 124,200/share (from previous VND 114,800/share) (incorporating a 15% share dividend). This implies an 18% upside. Our 2025 NPAT forecast remains largely unchanged.

1H25 results: FPT reported top-line growth of 11% YoY in 1H25, moderating from 19% YoY in 2024, largely due to subdued global IT spending. This trend is echoed in the growth of signed contract value/revenue, which slowed to 5% YoY (vs. 13% YoY in 2024). Despite this, effective cost management and a 119% YoY surge in dividend income enabled FPT to deliver 20% YoY net profit growth, broadly in line with our expectations.

2025-2026 outlook: We anticipate moderate earnings momentum in 2H25, with net profit expected to grow 15%–16% YoY. The technology segment is likely to remain under pressure due to current weakness in signed contract value growth. However, the telecommunications (telecom) segment is expected to remain the key short-term earnings driver. For 2026, amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges, we project a 15% YoY revenue growth and 16% YoY increase in NPAT.

Reiterate BUY rating with a revised 12-month TP of VND33,000/share (from VND27,900 adjusted for stock dividend), as we roll over our basis to mid-2026E (from 2025E) for our P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA targets. We maintain our 2025E revenue of VND171tn (+22% YoY) and NPAT of VND17.1tn (+42.5% YoY), translating to a net margin of 10%. As such, we expect 2H25E revenue of VND97tn (+40% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.5tn (+42% YoY).

In 2Q25, HPG reported impressive financial results, with bottom line coming in strong with NPAT of VND4.3tn (+28.5% YoY and 27.3% QoQ), in line with our expectation and market consensus.

Steel net margin improved healthily by 2.3pp to 10.3%, the highest level since 1Q21, from 8% in 1Q25 as well as 8% in 2Q24, thanks to lower input cost and higher selling prices.

Agriculture and Real Estate also contributed strongly to 2Q25 growth. Agriculture continued to show strength this quarter thanks to higher hog prices, leading to a 2Q25 NPAT of VND532bn (+136% YoY and 31% QoQ), while the Real Estate segment also posted strong NPAT of VND286bn (+360% YoY) even though revenue only came in at VND139bn (+4% YoY), thanks to a one-off gain from re-evaluation of land use rights fee.

Strong 2Q25 Performance Driven by Real Estate and JV Contributions. BCM delivered robust 2Q25 results with revenue and NPATMI reaching VND 2.5 tn (+116% YoY) and VND 1.4 tn (+272% YoY), fueled by land leasing and transfers in Binh Duong, strong margins from industrial parks, and rising JV profits, particularly from VSIP. The company’s execution led to 1H25 net profit fulfilling 73% of its annual plan.

Accelerated Land Transfers in Binh Duong New City in 2025-2026. BCM is poised to unlock value from its residential portfolio by transferring 20 hectares to sub-developers, supported by rapid construction progress and infrastructure upgrades following the region’s administrative merger into Ho Chi Minh City.

Industrial Park Expansion and JV Contributions The launch of the expanded Bau Bang Industrial Park by year-end is expected to deliver VND 1.55 trillion in revenue, with healthy margins. Additionally, VSIP and BWID joint ventures are projected to contribute VND 2.1 trillion in profit (+7% YoY).

Investment view. BCM maintains its position as a leading industrial park developer in Vietnam, underpinned by a large, fully owned landbank and strong joint venture momentum—especially VSIP, which is projected to see double-digit growth through 2026. We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of VND 89,900, offering a 29% upside, while keeping a close eye on cash flow pressure from JV capital demands.