Company Report

HT1 reported an appreciable 3Q25 YoY revenue growth of 15.3% to VND 2,037 bn, as well as a strong NPATMI recovery of VND 85.7 bn (+279.9% YoY). Gross profit reached VND 241 bn (+49.1% YoY), with GPM easing slightly to 12.9% from 14% in 2Q25. This performance came primarily from a solid rebound in 3Q25 sales volume (+18.1% YoY), driven by better market conditions and recovery in Vietnam’s construction segment. Easing coal prices also brought notable support to profit margins – a significant 16.6% drop compared to 3Q24.

Nonetheless, stronger infrastructure activity in the South continues to support HT1’s volume recovery. We maintain our FY25 volume growth forecast of +12% YoY, while adjusting ASP and input cost assumptions. For FY26, we expect sales volume to sustain growth momentum carried over from the Southern infrastructure projects, while ASP may remain low as market pressure persists.

At the current price, HT1 is trading at a P/E of 31.79x, P/B of 1.31x, and EV/EBITDA of 7.23x.

Based on a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple and a valuation horizon of FY2026, our revised target price is VND 18,400, and we downgrade HT1 to MARKET PERFORM following notable share price gains during 3Q25.

IMP delivered a resilient 3Q25 with revenue up to VND 574bn (+5% YoY), driven by a 16% surge in hospital (ETC) sales, which offset weaker OTC demand (following early restocking and tax headwinds for small pharmacies). Gross margin improved to 39.6% as higher-value prescription drugs and lower API prices lifted profitability, while net income rose to VND 77bn (+6% YoY) despite higher SG&A and financing costs. Strategically, IMP is expanding its footprint and introducing 20 new SKUs, including a first generic product, supported by another IMP4 line coming online in 4Q25. We believe the market underestimates the sustainability of ETC-led growth and upcoming capacity leverage, providing medium-term upside. With 68% of revenue and 63% of profit targets achieved for 2025, IMP still needs a strong 4Q finish. We expect 2025 & 2026 NPAT to reach 379bn (+18% YoY) and 456bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The stock is trading at P/E ratio of 16.5x 2026F, lower compared to its 5-year historical average of 18x and average regional peers of 20x. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 55,000/share target price (12% upside).

Following a trough in 2023, DGW’s earnings began recovering in 2024, with growth expected to continue through 2025 and 2026. The growth drivers include:

•           Mobile phone replacement cycle

•           Increased laptop upgrade demand fueled by AI feature adoption

•           Expansion of new brands/ product lines in the office equipment and home appliance segments.

Supporting the positive outlook, fiscal stimulus measures have been expanded to bolster consumer demand. Notably, the 2% VAT reduction—effective from July 2025 through December 2026—now includes mobile phones, laptops, and home appliances. Additionally, the removal of the 10% special consumption tax on air conditioners starting in 2026 allows these products to benefit from the VAT cut as well. The planned increase in personal and dependent allowance thresholds is also expected to further support household consumption.

We forecast net profit to reach VND 565 billion in 2025 (+26% YoY) and VND 699 billion in 2026 (+24% YoY). While DGW has previously underperformed the VN Index due to elevated valuations, the recent share price correction has brought its 2025–2026 P/E down to 14.6x and 11.8x, respectively—well below its 5-year historical average of 17x. With valuations now more compelling, we upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) and set a 12-month target price of VND 47,700 per share.

We maintain our target price of VND 29,000/share for NT2. Given a 36% upside potential, we upgrade from OUTPERFORM to BUY rating. The attractive 2025 dividend yield of over 9% can also be a supportive catalyst for the stock.

3Q25 financial highlights: earnings surged 4.8x, slightly exceeded our projection.

•           Output reached a three-year high. We primarily ascribe this to higher national electricity demand.

•           NT2 recorded a VND 24 bn provision reversal, resulting in lower-than-expected SG&A expenses.

•           Gas price declined by 4% YoY, following lower FO price.

2025-2026 outlook: We forecast machinery and equipment to fully depreciate during 4Q25 and support the quarter and 2026 earnings.

•           Our 4Q25 and 2025 NPAT growth estimates for NT2 are 3.3x YoY and 10x YoY.

•           We believe that the natural gas shortage in Southeast Vietnam may be less severe in 2026, aiding 8% YoY volume growth. Over the long-term, we remain our concerns about domestic natural gas shortages.

• Accelerated Property Development: Strong pre-sales momentum continues, fueled by multiple ongoing projects and anticipated launches in 2H25
•  Electric Vehicle (EV) Expansion: EV sales are projected to reach 180,000 units in 2025 (+85% YoY) and 220,000 units in 2026 (+22% YoY), reflecting robust growth.
• Earning Outlook: FY25 NPAT-MI is expected to hit 12.8 trillion (+7.3%YoY).

HAH is well-positioned to capitalize on elevated feeder charter rates and a structural shortage of vessels. We forecast 2025E net revenue of VND 5,151bn (+29.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,154bn (+46.2% YoY), underpinned by sustained charter strength and expanded fleet capacity. For 2026, we project revenue of VND 5,440bn (+5.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,347bn (+16.7% YoY), with margins moderating as feeder rates normalize but remain above historical averages.

Based on our adjusted DCF model, we initiate with an OUTPERFORM rating and a one-year target price of VND 63,800/share, implying 17.1% upside.

Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating: We maintain OUTPERFORM rating on HDB’s shares with 1Y target price of VND 36,800 – presenting an upside of 26.9%. HDB trades at 1.67x trailing P/B (1.33x forward), above its 5Y average of 1.5x.

Solid core income growth during 2Q25, including net interest income (+27.2% YoY), net fee income (+493% YoY), Fx trading gains (+37% YoY), and profitable securities trading income of VND 261 bn, which was largely offset by provisioning pressure (+268% YoY).

Solid pretax profit growth: PBT is projected to reach VND 20 tn (+19.9% YoY) in 2025 and VND 24 tn (+19.7% YoY) in 2026. ROE is retained at high level of over 20% in medium-term.

Both the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index and the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index have announced the results of their quarterly index review for 3Q25. The changes will be implemented on Friday, September 19, 2025, and will take effect from Monday, September 22, 2025.

The Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has not yet confirmed the effective date of its new benchmark. The transition will occur within the window between July 17, 2025, and October 16, 2025

2Q25 Deliveries Track Full-Year Guidance

VinFast delivered 35,800 EVs in 2Q25 (flat QoQ, +172% YoY), bringing 1H25 volumes to 72,000 units (+223% YoY). By comparison, VAMA members reported a 21% YoY increase in the same period. The sales mix remained weighted toward affordable models, with VF3 and VF5 representing 61% of volumes and VF6 contributing 12%. ASP held steady at ~USD 16,000, supported by reduced related-party sales to GSM (22% in 2Q25 vs. 28% in 2024). E-scooter volumes surged to 69,600 units (+432% YoY), reaching 114,000 in 1H25, though management reiterated the segment is non-core given lower ASPs and profitability. Full-year EV delivery guidance of 200,000 units (+100% YoY) was reaffirmed, with VF3–6 and the Green Series (for taxi services) identified as key drivers. Management highlighted potential upside from expansion in the Philippines and Indonesia.

Margins Under Pressure Despite Volume Growth

1H25 revenue reached USD 1.3bn (+92% YoY), but net loss widened to USD 1.5bn, reflecting elevated COGS (USD 1.8bn), OpEx (USD 0.4bn), and financing costs (USD 0.4bn). Q2 gross margin deteriorated to –41% (vs. –35% in Q1), weighed by a USD 400mn warranty provision for earlier models and revenue recognition delays. On an adjusted basis (excluding free charging programs, NRV adjustments, and other items), gross margin stood at –21%, slightly weaker than Q1.

2Q25 results: MSN reported solid 2Q25 earnings with NPATMI of VND 1.03 tn (+105% YoY) on lower financial expenses and higher selling prices for mining products.

Consumer tailwinds ahead: The WCM retail chain is well-positioned to benefit from the shift from traditional to modern trade, which will be catalyzed by the upcoming tax reform in 2026. Meanwhile, distribution disruptions at MCH are expected to normalize in 2H25 following a one-off destocking event in 2Q25.

Valuation: We raise our 1Y target price to VND 98,700, rolling valuation basis to 2026F (from 2025F) and reducing the conglomerate discount to 20% (from 25%). We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We maintain a constructive outlook on DBD, supported by its scalable, affordable product portfolio versus imported drugs and robust growth in the ETC market. In the medium to long term, new production facilities should secure future capacity, broaden the portfolio, and deliver material tax benefits (four years tax-free, followed by a 50% reduction for nine years). Notably, DBD remains among the few credible Vietnamese pharma players without a foreign strategic partner, an area management has expressed strong interest in pursuing.

We leave FY25–26 earnings forecasts unchanged (2025 NPAT: VND331bn, +16% YoY; 2026 NPAT: VND348bn, +9% YoY). Rolling valuations forward to 2026, we raise our target price to VND62,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 12x target EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. regional peer M&A multiples of 13x). With 16.3% implied upside, we upgrade DBD to Outperform.

The upcoming rebalancing cycle for offshore Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) with Vietnam exposure is scheduled for this month. The VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF, which tracks the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index, is expected to implement its quarterly rebalancing changes on September 19.

Separately, the Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has announced a benchmark transition, shifting from the FTSE Vietnam Index to the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index. In line with this change, the fund will be renamed the Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF.

The effective date of the new benchmark will fall within the transition window starting July 17, 2025, and no later than October 16, 2025. During this transition period, the index switch is considered pending, and a formal notification will be issued once the process is finalized.

The launch of The Gladia project is expected to be a key growth catalyst for Khang Dien in 2025–26, underpinning both sales value and earnings momentum. However, following the recent share price rally, much of this growth outlook has already been priced in. We therefore downgrade our rating from BUY to Market Perform, with a revised target price of VND 36,500 per share.

FY25–26 Outlook

Sales value is projected to reach VND 5,609bn (+9% YoY) in FY25 and VND 6,844bn (+22% YoY) in FY26, primarily supported by The Gladia.

Revenue is forecast at VND 5,442bn (+66% YoY) in FY25 and VND 5,982bn (+10% YoY) in FY26.

Net profit after tax and minority interests (NPAT-MI) is expected at VND 873bn (+8% YoY) in FY25 and VND 937bn (+7% YoY) in FY26, driven by contributions from The Privia and The Gladia.

Short-Term Outlook

Presales should improve in 2H25 following a stagnant 2024 and 1H25, with The Gladia launch scheduled for September. We expect earnings to grow 18% YoY in 2H25, supported by initial handovers at the project.

Long-Term Outlook

We maintain a constructive long-term view on Khang Dien, supported by its strong reputation as a developer, sizeable land bank in Ho Chi Minh City, proven project execution capabilities, and clear legal framework for its projects.

Following a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2Q25, we have revised our 2025 net income forecast upward to VND 5.83 tn (+56% YoY, from VND 5.56 tn).

Looking ahead, we introduce our 2026 net income projection at VND 6.88 tn, marking an 18% YoY growth. This forecast is underpinned by:

• Moderate earnings growth in the ICT & Consumer Electronics (CE) segment, supported by the ongoing mobile phone replacement cycle and improved demand on 2% VAT deduction (from July 2025)
• Strong earnings momentum from the grocery segment on aggressive store network expansion and ongoing improved profitability of existing stores

We anticipate the grocery chain will play a pivotal role in driving MWG’s expansion, while ICT & CE will deliver steady but limited growth due to currently high penetration of modern trade (~80%).

MWG’s share price has increased by 21% over the past 4 months. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2026F (previously based on 2025F), resulting in a new SOTP-based target price of VND 87,000 per share (from VND 74,000). As such, we continue to reiterate our BUY recommendation, supported by a compelling 18.2% upside potential from the current market price.